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Published April 16, 2025 – 3‑min read
1. 60‑second recap
- Where & why: At the Economic Club of Chicago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is “well‑positioned to wait for greater clarity before making any policy moves.” Reuters
- How markets heard it: “No more hikes for now, and maybe cuts if growth wobbles.” Traders immediately bid up Treasuries, sending yields lower. Reuters
2. Knee‑jerk market reaction
Metric Pre‑speech 30-minute afternoon
2‑yr Treasury yield 4.46 % 4.34 % −12 bp*
10‑yr Treasury yield 4.32 % 4.29 % −4 bp
Fed‑funds futures 45 % odds of Sept cut 60 % +15 ppt
*Two-year move is a composite of live data feeds, 10-year & futures numbers from Reuters. Reuters
3. Why bond yields matter for mortgages
Thirty‑year fixed mortgage rates track the 10‑year Treasury plus a risk premium. When the 10‑year slips, lenders’ funding costs improve, and they can pass along lower rates (after a lag).
- Today’s national 30-year fixed average: 6.86 %, back below the 7 % line and edging down for the second straight day. Mortgage News Daily
- The 10‑year’s ~4‑basis‑point slide isn’t giant, but if it sticks—and if traders keep pricing in Fed cuts—the move could shave another 5‑15 bp from mortgage offers over the next week. Historically, about one‑third to one‑half of a Treasury move shows up in retail mortgage pricing within five trading days.
4. What could keep the momentum going (or kill it)
Tailwinds for lower rates, possible spoilers
More data confirming slower growth and softer inflation, Re‑acceleration in core CPI/PCE
Ongoing tariff uncertainty keeps investors in safe‑haven Treasuries. Fresh tariff headlines that reignite inflation fears
Powell & Co. talking up patience during the May blackout period: A surprise hawkish Fed speaker or a hot jobs report.
5. Bottom line for home‑buyers & refi‑hopefuls
Powell told markets, “We’re on hold till the fog lifts.” That single line nudged Treasury yields—and, by extension, mortgage bond prices—higher. If the calmer tone in bonds sticks, lenders have room to trim mortgage quotes a bit more.
Shopping tip:
- Lock if: You close within 15 days and a sub‑7 % quote hits your target.
- Float (carefully) if you’ve a longer timeline and can stomach day‑to‑day volatility; another modest leg down is plausible if next week’s data disappoints.
Stay tuned—the bond market will decide whether today’s chill vibes are a blip or the start of a spring thaw in mortgage costs.
